The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for China's manufacturing industry in January 2025, released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, was 49.1%, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous month. In terms of enterprise size, the PMI of large enterprises was 49.9%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from last month; The PMI for medium-sized enterprises was 49.5%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month; The PMI for small businesses was 46.5%, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the previous month.

From the perspective of 13 sub indices, compared with the previous month, the purchase price index, ex factory price index, and production and operation activity expectation index have increased, with index increases ranging from 0.7 to 2 percentage points; The employment index remains unchanged; The production index, new order index, new export order index, backlog order index, finished goods inventory index, purchase volume index, import index, raw material inventory index, and supplier delivery time index have all decreased by 0.3 to 2.3 percentage points.

The PMI index fell in January and returned below the boom bust line, indicating that the economic recovery trend is still unstable. The price index has rebounded, indicating that the effect of improving the supply-demand relationship through previous policies has become apparent; The decline in the order index reflects that more than 60% of enterprises have insufficient demand, indicating that the problem of insufficient demand is still prominent; The decline in production index, procurement volume index, and import index indicates significant fluctuations in the production and operation activities of enterprises. Overall, the expectation of positive policy guidance and the contraction of demand guided by the market are fiercely competing. We must make every effort to grasp and implement various tasks of countercyclical macroeconomic regulation, especially to strengthen and increase the effective driving effect of government public product investment on enterprise orders as soon as possible, continue to guide demand recovery, enhance enterprise confidence, promote sustained activity in enterprise production and operation activities, and sustain economic growth.

The production index was 49.8%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points from the previous month. The new order index was 49.2%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month. The new export order index was 46.4%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points from the previous month. The backlog order index was 45.6%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from last month. The inventory index of finished products was 46.5%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month. The procurement volume index was 49.2%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points from the previous month. The import index was 48.1%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. The purchase price index was 49.5%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month. The ex factory price index was 47.4%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. The raw material inventory index was 47.7%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from last month. The employment index was 48.1%, unchanged from the previous month. The supplier delivery time index is 50.3%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from last month. The expected index of production and operation activities is 55.3%, an increase of 2 percentage points from the previous month.