The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing has released that the global manufacturing PMI for September 2025 was 49.7%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and remained in the range of 49% -50% for seven consecutive months. In the third quarter, the average global manufacturing PMI was 49.6%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the second quarter. From a regional perspective, the Asian manufacturing PMI remained unchanged from last month, running above 50% for five consecutive months; The African manufacturing PMI has increased compared to last month, running above 50% for three consecutive months; The PMI of European manufacturing industry has decreased compared to last month, below 50%; The manufacturing PMI in the Americas has slightly increased compared to last month, below 50%.

The comprehensive index change shows that the global manufacturing PMI is still below 50%, but remains within a certain range with little fluctuation, indicating that the global economic recovery trend is relatively stable. The strength of the global economic recovery in the third quarter has increased compared to the second quarter. From a regional perspective, the manufacturing industry in Asia continues to maintain stable expansion; The expansion of Africa's manufacturing industry has increased compared to last month; The recovery of manufacturing industries in the Americas and Europe is relatively weak, with the recovery of manufacturing industries in Europe being weaker than last month, while the recovery of manufacturing industries in the Americas has not changed much compared to last month. Based on the relatively stable current economic recovery situation, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's mid-term economic outlook report has raised the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from the June forecast of 2.9% to 3.2%, while maintaining the unchanged forecast of 2.9% global economic growth for 2026. This means that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has raised its expectations for economic growth this year, but has not changed its long-term assessment of a sustained slowdown in global economic growth.

Under the continuous disturbance of trade frictions and geopolitical conflicts, the weak growth of global market demand has not changed. Although the global economic recovery remains stable within a certain range, it is difficult to see a significant increase. In this context, pursuing technological innovation driven and enhancing supply chain resilience has become an important lever for countries around the world to promote economic stability and recovery. At the same time, the importance of strengthening regional economic cooperation for economic stability and recovery cannot be ignored. Behind the stable expansion of manufacturing industries in Asia and Africa, regional trade cooperation has played an important role.

Weak recovery of manufacturing industry in the Americas, slight increase in PMI

In September 2025, the PMI for manufacturing in the Americas was 48.9%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the manufacturing industry in the Americas remained in a contraction range with little fluctuation compared to the previous month. In the third quarter, the average PMI for manufacturing in the Americas was 48.6%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the second quarter. Data changes show that the manufacturing industry in the Americas continued its weak recovery trend from the second quarter in the third quarter. According to data from major countries, in September, the US manufacturing PMI increased compared to the previous month, but remained below 50%; The manufacturing PMI for Canada, Brazil, and Mexico has decreased to varying degrees compared to last month, all below 50%; The manufacturing PMI in Colombia is above 50%, a decrease from the previous month. The ISM report shows that in September 2025, the US manufacturing PMI was 49.1%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, marking two consecutive months of month on month growth and seven consecutive months of being below 50%. The sub index shows that the new order index has dropped below 50%; The production index has risen to over 50%; The employment index has increased compared to last month, but remains at a relatively low level of around 45%; The purchasing price index remains at a high level of over 61%, and has been above 60% for 8 consecutive months.

The comprehensive index has changed, and the recovery strength of the US manufacturing industry has increased compared to last month, but the demand side is still unstable. New demand has fallen to the contraction range, production has expanded, and enterprise employment remains sluggish. Raw material prices remain high. The latest data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the US CPI rose by 0.4% month on month in August, pushing the US annualized inflation rate up 0.2 percentage points from July to 2.9%. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in the United States rose to 4.3% in August, reaching a new high in nearly four years. The Federal Reserve will face a dilemma between promoting economic recovery and curbing inflation, with uncertainty in the pace and magnitude of monetary policy easing. The US government shutdown has also brought short-term uncertainty to the recovery of the US economy, and key data such as non farm payroll employment cannot be released on time, making it more difficult for the US government to make policy decisions.

The recovery of European manufacturing industry has weakened, and PMI has decreased compared to last month

In September 2025, the European manufacturing PMI was 49%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, ending an eight month consecutive month on month upward trend. In the third quarter, the average PMI for European manufacturing was 49.3%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the second quarter. From the perspective of major countries, in September, the manufacturing PMI of Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and Italy all decreased to varying degrees compared to the previous month, and the index was below 50%; The manufacturing PMI for Spain and Greece has decreased to varying degrees compared to last month, with indices both above 50%. The overall recovery of European manufacturing industry in the third quarter was better than that in the second quarter due to changes in the composite index, but the recovery of European manufacturing industry in September weakened compared to the previous month. The manufacturing industry in major European countries is still in a contraction zone. The stability of the European economic recovery still needs to be improved. The latest data from the European Statistical Office shows that the Eurozone's inflation rate in September was 2.2% on an annual basis, higher than August's 2.0%, but still within an acceptable range. There is a high probability that the European Central Bank will continue to maintain the current levels of the three key interest rates. Cultivating effective demand growth drivers and enhancing overall market competitiveness while maintaining the current monetary policy is an important lever for Europe to enhance its economic recovery resilience. Recently, 28 large multinational corporations in Europe issued a joint statement calling on the EU to introduce reform measures to enhance Europe's competitiveness.

The growth rate of Africa's manufacturing industry has accelerated compared to last month, and the PMI has risen

In September 2025, the African manufacturing PMI was 51.4%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and has been running above 50% for three consecutive months. In the third quarter, the average PMI for African manufacturing was 51.1%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the second quarter. From the perspective of major countries, in September, Nigeria's manufacturing PMI decreased compared to the previous month and remained at a relatively high level of over 53%; The South African manufacturing PMI has significantly increased from last month, rising to over 52%. Based on comprehensive data changes, the growth rate of Africa's manufacturing industry has accelerated compared to last month, and remained in the expansion range in the third quarter, with overall growth significantly better than in the second quarter. Thanks to the demographic dividend, natural resource endowment, and urbanization development potential, the African economy has the foundation for sustained and rapid growth. Meanwhile, the continuous promotion of the African Continental Free Trade Area also provides assistance for the stable recovery of the African economy. However, it should also be noted that the high degree of external dependence and the primary nature of products also make the African economy vulnerable to external shocks. To this end, African countries have strengthened regional integration cooperation to resist external shocks and strive to expand the range of manufacturing products and enhance product added value.

Asian manufacturing industry maintains a stable expansion trend, with PMI unchanged from last month

In September 2025, the Asian manufacturing PMI was 50.9%, unchanged from the previous month, and remained above 50% for five consecutive months. In the third quarter, the average PMI for Asian manufacturing was 50.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the second quarter. From the perspective of major countries, in September, China's manufacturing PMI rose for two consecutive months on a month on month basis, with the increase expanding compared to the previous month; The manufacturing PMI in India has decreased compared to last month and remains above 57%; Among ASEAN countries, the manufacturing PMI of Thailand and Myanmar has significantly increased compared to last month, with indices above 53%. The manufacturing PMI of Vietnam, Indonesia, and Singapore is slightly above 50%, while the manufacturing PMI of the Philippines and Malaysia is below 50%; The manufacturing PMI for Japan and South Korea has decreased and increased compared to last month, with prices below 50% and above 50% respectively.

Overall, the Asian economy maintained a stable expansion trend in the third quarter, with better growth than in the second quarter. The resilience of the Asian economy's recovery is stronger than that of Europe, the Americas, and Africa. On the one hand, major Asian countries have been more resolute in their policy support for economic recovery; On the other hand, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement has played an important role in promoting deepening trade cooperation in the Asian region. According to the International Monetary Fund, the RCEP region is expected to contribute approximately 32.7% of global economic growth by 2030. Based on the stable recovery of the Asian economy, the latest report from the Asian Development Bank has revised up the expected growth rate of the Asian economy in 2025 from 4.7% in July to 4.8%.