According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the global manufacturing PMI for October 2025 was 49.7%, unchanged from the previous month and running in the range of 49% -50% for eight consecutive months. From January to October, the average global manufacturing PMI was 49.6%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the same period last year, but still lower than the same period in 2019. From a regional perspective, the PMI for manufacturing in Asia and Africa has slightly decreased compared to the previous month, both exceeding 50%; The European manufacturing PMI has slightly increased compared to last month, below 50%; The manufacturing PMI in the Americas has slightly decreased from last month, below 49%.

The comprehensive index has changed, and the global manufacturing industry continues to remain stable within a certain range, with a relatively stable recovery trend. The recovery strength since the beginning of this year is slightly better than the same period last year, but still lower than the pre pandemic level. The global economy continues to recover slowly. From a regional perspective, the manufacturing industries in Asia and Africa continue to expand, with slightly slower growth rates compared to last month; The recovery of manufacturing industries in the Americas and Europe is still relatively weak, with European manufacturing recovering slightly better than last month, while the recovery of manufacturing industries in the Americas has not changed much compared to last month. The latest report from the International Monetary Fund predicts a global economic growth rate of 3.2% in 2025, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the forecast in July, but still lower than the pre pandemic average of 3.7%. From the current global economic development environment, unstable and uncertain factors such as geopolitical conflicts and trade frictions continue to exist, inevitably causing disturbances to the global economy. Although the global economy remains stable within a certain range, there is still insufficient momentum to continue accelerating its upward momentum. But it should also be noted that the process of globalization is unstoppable, and seeking broader and deeper economic cooperation remains the main demand for countries around the world to promote economic development. At the same time, countries around the world are also paying more attention to refinement and coordination in the implementation of monetary and fiscal policies.

The manufacturing industry in the Americas continues to be weak, with a slight decline in PMI

In October 2025, the PMI for the manufacturing industry in the Americas was 48.8%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and remained below 50% for eight consecutive months, indicating that the manufacturing industry in the Americas continues to be in a contraction zone and the recovery is relatively weak. According to data from major countries, in October, the manufacturing PMI for the United States and Mexico decreased compared to the previous month, with indices both below 50%; The manufacturing PMI for Canada and Brazil has increased to varying degrees compared to last month, but both indices are below 50%; The manufacturing PMI in Colombia has increased compared to last month, with an index of over 50%. The ISM report shows that in October 2025, the US manufacturing PMI was 48.7%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, ending two consecutive months of month on month upward trend and eight consecutive months below 50%. The sub index shows that the new order index has increased compared to the previous month, but still remains below 50%; The production index has dropped from over 50% last month to below 49%, with a significant decrease compared to the previous month; The employment index has increased compared to the previous month, but remains at a relatively low level of around 47%; The purchasing price index has decreased compared to last month, but remains at a high level of 58%. Corporate surveys show that global economic uncertainty and changes in tariffs have had a negative impact on business demand.

Based on changes in comprehensive data, the recovery of the US manufacturing industry has weakened. In order to promote the recovery of the US economy, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates for the second time this year, but remains cautious about whether to continue cutting interest rates in December. The latest data from the US Department of Labor shows that the US Consumer Price Index rose by 3.0% year-on-year in September, exceeding the US inflation target of 2%; The sustained low level of the manufacturing employment index means that employment in the US manufacturing industry is also under pressure. The above data provides a basis for the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates. Meanwhile, the uncertain impact of the US federal government shutdown and tariff policies on the US economy is still fermenting. According to a survey by the World Conference on Large Enterprises, a research institution in the United States, the US Consumer Confidence Index fell from the revised 95.6 in September to 94.6 in October, while the Consumer Expectations Index, which reflects short-term income prospects and business and job market conditions, fell 2.9 points to 71.5.

The recovery of the European manufacturing industry is on the rise, with PMI increasing compared to last month

In October 2025, the European manufacturing PMI was 49.6%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of major countries, the manufacturing PMI of Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and Italy have all slightly increased compared to last month, but the index is below 50%; The manufacturing PMI for Spain and Greece has increased to varying degrees compared to last month, with indices both above 50%. The comprehensive index has changed, and the recovery of the European manufacturing industry in October has increased compared to the previous month, but the index is still below 50%, indicating that the overall recovery of the European economy still needs to be strengthened. The latest data from the European Statistical Office shows that the Eurozone economy achieved a growth of 0.2% in the third quarter, slightly higher than market expectations, confirming that the European economy is slowly recovering. At the same time, the initial annual CPI rate for the Eurozone in October was 2.1%, which remained basically at the target level of the European Central Bank. Based on changes in economic growth and inflation data, the European Central Bank will continue to maintain the current key interest rate level unchanged. But it should also be noted that the impact of trade frictions and geopolitical conflicts on European domestic demand and supply chain stability is still ongoing, which is also the main factor affecting the relatively slow recovery of the European economy. The latest report from the International Monetary Fund predicts that the economic growth rate of the Eurozone in 2025 will only be 1.2%.

African manufacturing growth slows down, PMI has declined

In October 2025, the African manufacturing PMI was 50.8%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and has been running above 50% for four consecutive months. From the perspective of major countries, Nigeria's manufacturing PMI has increased compared to last month and remains at a relatively high level of over 53%; The South African manufacturing PMI has significantly decreased from last month, dropping below 50%; The manufacturing PMI in Egypt has slightly increased compared to last month, but remains below 50%. The overall index has changed, and the growth rate of Africa's manufacturing industry has slowed down compared to last month. The latest report from the International Monetary Fund predicts that Africa's economic growth rate will reach 4.2% by 2025. Continuing to increase investment in infrastructure, promote industrial transformation, and seek trade diversification are important paths for African countries to promote economic development. Meanwhile, the impact of trade frictions, debt burden, and political instability remain the main difficulties that African countries need to overcome in the process of economic recovery.

The growth rate of Asia's manufacturing industry has slightly slowed down, and PMI has slightly decreased

In October 2025, the Asian manufacturing PMI was 50.7%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and remained above 50% for six consecutive months. From the perspective of major countries, China's manufacturing PMI has decreased compared to last month; The manufacturing PMI in India has increased from the previous month, rising to over 59%; Among ASEAN countries, the manufacturing PMI of Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam has increased to varying degrees compared to the previous month, with indices all above 50%. The manufacturing PMI of Malaysia has decreased compared to the previous month and is below 50%; Both Japan and South Korea's manufacturing PMI have decreased to varying degrees compared to last month, and are both below 50%. Overall, the manufacturing industry in Asia continues to maintain a stable expansion trend and has shown good resilience in recovery. The latest report from the International Monetary Fund predicts that the economic growth rate of the Asia Pacific region in 2025 will be 4.5%, which is 0.6 percentage points higher than the forecast in April, and believes that Asia's contribution to global economic growth is about 60%. Adhering to the concept of openness, continuously deepening regional economic and trade cooperation, and emphasizing the stability of industrial and supply chains are important foundations for major countries in Asia to maintain economic recovery resilience.