PMI rises as stimulus pays off big2026/10/1 7:11:00(Beijing Time) Lange Steel
China's manufacturing, services and construction activity all swung back into growth in September, official data showed on Wednesday, as fresh stimulus measures began to kick in, raising hopes of a modest pickup in third-quarter growth.
Experts said that the latest readings indicate the world's second-largest economy is on track to meet its full-year target of 4.5 to 5 percent after a slowdown in the second quarter.
The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 50.1 in September from 49.8 in August, ending two months of contraction, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday. The production subindex climbed 1.3 points to 51.7, while the new orders gauge stood at 50.5.
Wang Qing, chief macroeconomic analyst at Orient Golden Credit Rating International, attributed the improvement mainly to stronger policy support and an easing of weather-related disruptions.
"The rollout of new policy-based financial instruments totaling 800 billion yuan ($119.29 billion) was in full swing during the month, while other pro-growth measures were also gaining traction," Wang said.
Consumer goods manufacturing was a bright spot, with the sector's PMI climbing to 50.7 in September from 49.0 in August, NBS data showed.
Wen Tao, an analyst at the China Logistics Information Center, said the sector benefited from businesses stocking up for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, as seasonal pickups increased demand and manufacturers stepped up efforts to fulfill overseas orders.
A separate private survey reinforced the picture of stronger factory activity. The RatingDog China manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global, rose to a five-month high of 52.1 in September from 51.5 in August, according to a statement released on Wednesday.
"Manufacturing has been a relative strength this year," said Lynn Song, chief economist for China at Dutch bank ING, adding that external demand had provided most of the support.
Meanwhile, China's non-manufacturing PMI also climbed back above the 50-point threshold to reach 50.2 in September, up from August's 49.0, the NBS said.
Construction activity expanded for the first time this year, with the sector's business activity index jumping 3.4 points to 50.3. The services index rose 0.9 point to 50.2.
"Wednesday's data suggest we will see a modest uptick in economic activity in September," Song said. The remarks come as August figures show continued pressure on the country's consumption and investment.
A State Council executive meeting on Monday called for stronger countercyclical adjustments to macroeconomic policy to shore up growth, address emerging challenges and help achieve the country's annual economic and social development goals.
According to the meeting, efforts will be made to optimize fiscal expenditure, adjust monetary policy tools in a timely manner, and increase relending support for scientific and technological innovation, technological transformation, agriculture and small businesses.
On the consumption front, the National Development and Reform Commission, the country's top economic regulator, said on Wednesday that China had allocated the final 62.5 billion yuan in ultra-long special treasury bond funds for its consumer goods trade-in program. All 250 billion yuan earmarked for the program this year has now been allocated.
With scope to further boost domestic consumption and investment, Song from ING said measures announced by the State Council earlier this week could help support domestic demand by year-end.
"Faster stimulus implementation supports the modest second-half recovery already in our baseline," said Louise Loo, head of Asia economics at British think tank Oxford Economics, which forecasts China's economy will grow 4.6 percent this year.
Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, also struck an optimistic note, saying existing policies and fresh stimulus would give the economy a further lift.
"Economic momentum is expected to strengthen further in the fourth quarter," Wen said, adding that this would help ensure the country meets its full-year economic growth target.
Contact the writers at zhangchenxu@chinadaily.com.cn

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